The Pitfalls of Estimation in IT Projects

Have you ever bought a house or an apartment while it was still under construction? If you have, you know the drill: delays, unexpected issues, and endless frustrations. It’s almost a given that construction projects won’t be delivered on time, even in an industry that’s been around for centuries. Now, consider the IT industry—barely 60 years old. It’s no wonder we struggle to make accurate estimates.

The number of unknowns in IT is staggering.

Problem 1: The Inherent Difficulty of Estimation

Let’s get one thing straight: estimation in IT is hard. Really hard. With so many unknown variables, giving precise estimates is like trying to predict the weather six months in advance. It’s practically impossible.

Problem 2: Misuse of Estimates

The second major issue? How estimates are used. Too often, they become a stick to measure engineers’ performance. This is fundamentally wrong.

You might say, “But we use T-shirt sizing to calculate velocity with Scrum.” Sure, but let’s be real. Your manager, their manager, or the CEO are all converting that into time. For them, the only thing that matters is time, not velocity.

The Dilemma

So, here’s the dilemma: How do we, as engineers, provide the visibility that the company needs?

And here’s the cold, hard truth: Time is the only metric that matters.

A Change in Mindset

Three parameters can influence the output:

  • People: How many people are working on the project.
  • Time: How long you have.
  • Scope: What features are included.

Assume the team is at a fixed capacity and won’t grow. Also, assume we fix the timeframe to, say, six weeks.

The question then is: What can we build in six weeks?

Practical Approach

Here’s a practical approach: Project stakeholders should present a list of potential projects along with their priorities. The team makes an initial assessment of what can realistically be built and starts working on it.

If everything goes according to plan, you’ll have a completed project at the end of six weeks.

If things go sideways, communicate with the stakeholders about what can be de-scoped from the project.

Conclusion

The key is variable scope. Flexibility in scope is the secret sauce that allows for realistic project management and delivery within set timeframes. Time to embrace it.